An Uninformed Look at The Blue Jays-Marlins SuperMega Deal

THE TRADE


    Some quick, very initial impressions I got from this trade and the players involved. (Complete with varying levels of astuteness on my part)

    First and foremost, this deal declares is that the Blue Jays want to compete now. They believe these acquisitions, along with full healthy seasons from their key players (Bautista, Morrow, Lawrie, Romero?) will be enough to contend for a playoff spot. It's far from an absurd thought, afterall, what with the dramatic improvement of other AL teams last season and the addition of the second wildcard spot. Let's look closer at what the Blue Jays are actually getting.

    SP Josh Johnson

    Two concerns immediately come to mind with Johnson: can he stay on the mound, and will he want to re-sign with Toronto? At a distant glance, his health concerns appear real but perhaps exaggerated. He has been able to throw 180 innings three of the past four seasons, stopped only in 2011 by shoulder inflammation that ended that season prematurely. This injury also explains his elevated 3.81 ERA in 2012, as he struggled early in the year (A 4.83 ERA on May30th) but regained his form once the rust wore off. The 're-signing with Toronto' part is what I find much more pressing, for if he's here for only one season the trade does not look nearly as incredible for Toronto. In the meanwhile, the Blue Jays have acquired an absolutely superb young pitcher that any other team in baseball would gladly have.

    SS Jose Reyes

    I will admit to knowing very little about Jose Reyes outside of what the numbers tell me. He can steal bases? That's good. He's a .291 career hitter who can take a walk? That's good. He has at least an average defensive reputation? That's okay. He's a 29 year old shortstop who can do all these things? That's very good. Reyes, like Johnson, has those questions revolving around him about whether he can stay healthy, as he is moving onto a turf surface and tends to miss about 30 games a season anyway. This makes the Maicer Izturis signing look very clever now. If Reyes needs to miss a few games or weeks because of his wonky legs, the team has a very capable insurance plan in Izturis. That's an improvement from last season automatically.

    SP Mark Buehrle

    Looking over Mark Buehrle's career, I'm astonished how every season looks exactly the same. 13-16 wins, ERA around 3.50, 200 innings without fail. (Did you know that, excluding his rookie year, Buehrle has NEVER pitched a season with fewer than 200 innings?) People worry his low strikeout rate as he ages is provoking inevitable disaster, but I disagree:

    Buehrle 2001: 5.1 k/9
    Buehrle 2012: 5.6 k/9

    They don't get much more consistent than that. Also considering the enormous contracts free agent pitchers Greinke, Sanchez, Haren and Jackson are likely to receive, the Blue Jays have in essence 'signed' a pitcher of similar effectiveness to a similar (perhaps lower) annual price, but to a contract half as long. Also, pitchers of Buehrle's calibre defensively are seriously fun to watch.

    UT Emilio Bonifacio

    The forgotten man of this deal, (or at least, I've forgotten he's been a part of it several times) Bonifacio is a genuinely useful major league player. If he can't hit much (which is a strong possibility) he can still play almost any position for you on a ball diamond and swipe some bags for you while he does it. Sort of like if two Mike McCoys combined their hitting abilities into one man.   
   
    C John Buck

    It'll be curious to see how long he sticks with the team, if he does at all. Worth noting I think is how since leaving town Buck has descended into awfulness with the bat, despite a much better walk rate with the Marlins than he showed here. Make what you will with that tidbit.

    Let's be honest, the Blue Jays are getting a lot (a lot!) of talent in this trade, but are giving up a fair share of it also. Yunel Escobar, for all his shortcomings, is a superior defensive shortstop who with a good year with the bat, is one of the positions most valuable players. Adieny Hechavarria was born with a glove in his hand, and while hitting is his biggest uncertainty he has made strides in that direction and is young enough to stride further. Henderson Alvarez is 22 with a fastball that has absolutely evil movement. Justin Nicolino is the best 'pitcher' right now of the big Lansing Three. Jake Marisnick is a young, athletic outfielder, and Jeff Mathis is definitely a good go-to arm in blowouts.

    A lot of good young talent left the organization to make this trade happen, many of them prospects we all dream of Cy Youngs, Silver Sluggers and Gold Gloves being attached to their names some day. Yet it speaks to the strength of the minor league system built up over the past few years under Anthopolous that this much potential can depart but many exciting players still remain. We won't know if the deal was truly a good one for the talent level of the organization until the careers of Escobar, Hechavarria, Nicolino, Alvarez and Marisnick are clearer many years from now.

    Anyhow, does this make the Blue Jays a better team today? Uh, yeah. Most importantly, it brings some interest and excitement back to the team after a dreadful 2012 where anything seemed to go wrong. For that alone, it is an marvellous trade for Toronto.

    As for the Marlins? Well... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHs9Rf7L8_U

(photo courtesy of metronews.ca)